Scenario Lab — Market Crisis & Behavioral Stress Testing
Explore 35 historical crisis simulations spanning asset bubbles, macroeconomic shocks, corporate scandals, currency devaluations, personal finance dilemmas, and real estate traps.
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The 1637 Tulip Mania (The Asset Bubbles) — Medium
Holland, 1637. Tulip bulb valuations have spiked 400% in a month. Speculators are buying contracts for future bulb harvests using promissory notes. You hold rare bulbs valued at a lifetime of wages on paper.
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The 1720 South Sea Bubble (The Asset Bubbles) — Hard
London, 1720. The government-backed South Sea Company's shares have soared 8x. Prominent figures are liquidating real estate to buy shares. Sir Isaac Newton has just re-entered the market with massive leverage.
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The 1929 Margin Trap (The Asset Bubbles) — Extreme
October 1929. You have $1,000 cash and $9,000 worth of equities financed with 10x margin leverage. Stock valuations dip 10%, triggering an immediate margin call of $1,500. Your broker demands cash within 24 hours.
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The 1999 Dot-Com Meltdown (The Asset Bubbles) — Hard
Late 1999. Your unvested stock options in your employer, a high-flying tech startup, are worth $1.2M on paper. You have negligible cash savings, and the options vesting schedule is spread over the next 24 months.
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The 2017 Crypto Winter (The Asset Bubbles) — Extreme
Late 2017. You are all-in on speculative altcoins. They have dipped 20% from their peak, but popular consensus insists they are going to the moon.
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The 2021 Meme Stock Squeeze (The Asset Bubbles) — Hard
Early 2021. Retail options buying has sent a retail stock up 2000%. Implied volatility is at 400%, and option premiums are extremely expensive.
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The 2021 NFT Mania (The Asset Bubbles) — Medium
A digital collectible set you minted for $200 has a floor price of 15 ETH ($60,000) on paper. Trading volumes on OpenSea are down 70% in the last week.
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The 1973 Stagflation Cycle (Macroeconomic Crises) — Hard
1973. Oil shocks spike inflation to 11%. Your fixed career income is flat, and standard savings yields are under 5%.
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The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (Macroeconomic Crises) — Hard
1997. You run an import business in Thailand. Your operational debt is in USD, but your revenue is in local Baht. The Baht's currency peg to the dollar is failing.
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The 1998 Russian Ruble Crisis (Macroeconomic Crises) — Hard
1998. You hold high-yield Russian government bonds yielding 150%. Signs of default are rising as commodity prices crash.
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The 2001 Argentine Debt Crisis (Macroeconomic Crises) — Extreme
December 2001. Economic panic is mounting. The government is rumored to freeze all dollar-denominated bank deposits to prevent a bank run (the Corralito).
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The 2008 Subprime Collapse (Macroeconomic Crises) — Hard
2008. You have a variable-rate mortgage on your suburban home. Home prices are falling nationwide, and your mortgage payments are resetting higher, matching interest spikes.
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The 2010 Eurozone Debt Crisis (Macroeconomic Crises) — Hard
2010. You live in Greece. National debt yields spike, austerity programs start, and bank solvency is threatened.
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The 2020 Pandemic Flash Crash (Macroeconomic Crises) — Medium
March 2020. Global lockdowns trigger a 30% drop in equities in weeks. The news cycle warns of a depression.
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The 2001 Enron Collapse (Institutional Deception) — Hard
2001. You work at Enron. 90% of your 401(k) retirement plan is held in Enron stock, which is up 50% year-on-year. Whistleblowers raise questions about company accounting.
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The 2008 Lehman Liquidity Crunch (Institutional Deception) — Hard
September 2008. Your small business relies on a revolving credit line from Lehman Brothers. The bank is rumored to be insolvent, and interbank lending is freezing up.
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The 2008 Madoff Ponzi Scheme (Institutional Deception) — Medium
2008. Your financial advisor recommends a fund that returns a consistent 1% monthly regardless of market drops. The manager refuses to disclose the custodian bank.
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The 2022 FTX Collapse (Institutional Deception) — Extreme
November 2022. Rumors spread on Twitter that your digital asset custodian has mismatched liabilities. You have 90% of your liquid savings parked on the platform earning an 8% yield. The withdrawal queue is growing.
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The 1923 Weimar Hyperinflation (Hyperinflation) — Extreme
Germany, 1923. The paper Mark is losing value hourly due to sovereign debt printing. Prices of food and fuel double daily. You have your lifetime savings stored in bank deposits.
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The 1980s Latin American Debt Crisis (Hyperinflation) — Hard
1980s. Multiple Latin American countries default on sovereign dollar-denominated loans. Local currencies collapse, and domestic inflation spikes to 500%.
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The 2008 Zimbabwe Devaluation (Hyperinflation) — Extreme
2008. The central bank prints trillion-dollar bills. Bank balances are adjusted down by the day.
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The 2018 Venezuelan Bolivar Meltdown (Hyperinflation) — Hard
2018. The Bolivar collapses. Daily transactions require stacks of cash. The internet is active, but power grids are unstable.
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The Tech Graduate's First Check (Lifestyle Creep) — Medium
Your first software engineering job just paid out ₹85,000 net into your account. Your college roommates are booking weekend getaways and talking about leasing a luxury German hatchback for ₹24,000/month. 'Bro, you're earning tech money now,' one says over chai. 'Don't live like an intern.'
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The DINK Luxury Blindspot (Lifestyle Creep) — Medium
You and your partner earn a high joint income of $15,000/month. You live in a high-end downtown loft ($5,500/mo) and spend $6,000/mo on fine dining and luxury travel. Your joint savings are $5,000.
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The Silent Pinholes (Subscription Bleed) (Lifestyle Creep) — Easy
It's Saturday morning. You check your bank statement and notice 14 small auto-debits: gym app, three streaming services, cloud storage, meal subscription, and two premium productivity tools. Each is ₹299 to ₹899. Together, they quietly drain ₹8,500 every month without you noticing.
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The Wedding Over-Expenditure (Lifestyle Creep) — Medium
Your joint net savings are $10,000. You are planning a wedding and are pressured to spend $45,000 (financing $35,000 on a 5-year personal loan at 12% interest).
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The Angel Investment Liquidity Trap (Lifestyle Creep) — Hard
A friend asks you to invest $15,000 (80% of your savings) in their new local craft brewery startup. They promise a 3x payoff when they franchise in 5 years.
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The Midnight Group Chat Moonshot (Credit Card & Debt) — Medium
It is 11:45 PM on a Tuesday. Your college WhatsApp group is buzzing with screenshots of green charts. Three friends claim they doubled their month's pay in four hours on a newly launched token. One texts you directly: 'Bro, throw fifty thousand into this before morning. It will 10x by Friday. Don't be a boomer.' You are looking at your rent money sitting quietly in your savings account.
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Splitting The Dinner Bill (Credit Card & Debt) — Medium
You attend a birthday dinner at an upscale rooftop lounge with seven acquaintances. You had a simple soup and water totaling ₹650 because you are on a tight budget. At midnight, someone orders two bottles of champagne and luxury sushi for the table, then announces: 'Let's just split the bill equally! That's ₹4,200 each.' A cold knot forms in your stomach.
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The Student Loan Shadow (Credit Card & Debt) — Hard
You have $80,050 in student loan debt at 7% interest. You land a high-pressure corporate job you dislike, which pays $6,000/month. You want to join an early-stage startup that offers equity but pays only $2,500/month.
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The Payday Predatory Vortex (Credit Card & Debt) — Extreme
You need $500 to pay emergency car repairs before your next paycheck in 10 days. A payday storefront offers a $500 cash advance for a flat $75 fee (equivalent to a 400% APR).
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The 1980s Japanese Real Estate Bubble (Real Estate & Geography) — Hard
Tokyo, 1989. Land in Tokyo is valued at more than all land in California combined. You are looking to buy a tiny 1-bedroom apartment in Tokyo for $1M, financed with a 100-year mortgage.
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The Fixer-Upper Money Pit (Real Estate & Geography) — Hard
You buy an old house at a discount for $150,000, planning to spend $30,000 on renovations and flip it for $240,000. During demolition, you discover major foundation cracking and toxic mold.
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The Rent vs Buy Blindspot (Real Estate & Geography) — Medium
You are considering buying a $400,000 suburban home. Renting an equivalent house costs $1,500/month. The mortgage payment is $2,200/month, plus property taxes and maintenance estimates of $500/month.
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Forced High-Cost City Migration (Real Estate & Geography) — Medium
You live in a low-cost city earning $4,000/month. You get a job offer in New York City paying $6,000/month. Rent will increase from $1,200/mo to $3,200/mo, and general costs will rise 30%.