The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
Historical Context
1997. You run an import business in Thailand. Your operational debt is in USD, but your revenue is in local Baht. The Baht's currency peg to the dollar is failing.
The Critical Decision Dilemma
How do you secure your business?
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Choice: Purchase dollar forward contracts to hedge currency risk, and pay down USD debt immediately. (Optimal Sovereign Action)
Lesson: Matching asset and liability currencies is vital. When the Baht unpegged, USD debt surged in local terms.
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Choice: Hold your Baht reserves, assuming the government's foreign exchange reserves will support the peg. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Central banks cannot fight market forces forever. The peg broke, and your USD debt liabilities doubled overnight.
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Choice: Expand business debt to buy local real estate assets at cheap local rates. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Real estate crashed alongside the currency, leaving you with devalued assets and high USD liabilities.