The 1720 South Sea Bubble
Historical Context
London, 1720. The government-backed South Sea Company's shares have soared 8x. Prominent figures are liquidating real estate to buy shares. Sir Isaac Newton has just re-entered the market with massive leverage.
The Critical Decision Dilemma
How do you manage your stock exposure?
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Choice: Sell all shares immediately and convert the proceeds into agricultural land or gold bullion. (Optimal Sovereign Action)
Lesson: When valuations decouple from real revenue, exit to tangibles. Newton re-entered and lost his fortune; recognized bubbles must be exited, not chased.
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Choice: Purchase shares on margin to match Newton's buys, trusting the government's backing to support valuations. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Government patronage cannot support a mathematical insolvency. The bubble burst, shares fell 90%, and your leveraged account was wiped out.
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Choice: Write call options to collect premium, assuming shares will trade sideways at their new peak. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Options trading during market mania carries extreme tail risk. The sudden drop triggered massive option payouts, forcing you into bankruptcy.