Category: The Asset Bubbles | Difficulty: Hard

The 1720 South Sea Bubble

Historical Context

London, 1720. The government-backed South Sea Company's shares have soared 8x. Prominent figures are liquidating real estate to buy shares. Sir Isaac Newton has just re-entered the market with massive leverage.

The Critical Decision Dilemma

How do you manage your stock exposure?

  • Choice: Sell all shares immediately and convert the proceeds into agricultural land or gold bullion. (Optimal Sovereign Action)

    Lesson: When valuations decouple from real revenue, exit to tangibles. Newton re-entered and lost his fortune; recognized bubbles must be exited, not chased.

  • Choice: Purchase shares on margin to match Newton's buys, trusting the government's backing to support valuations. (Behavioral Failure Trap)

    Lesson: Government patronage cannot support a mathematical insolvency. The bubble burst, shares fell 90%, and your leveraged account was wiped out.

  • Choice: Write call options to collect premium, assuming shares will trade sideways at their new peak. (Behavioral Failure Trap)

    Lesson: Options trading during market mania carries extreme tail risk. The sudden drop triggered massive option payouts, forcing you into bankruptcy.