Category: Macroeconomic Crises | Difficulty: Medium

The 2020 Pandemic Flash Crash

Historical Context

March 2020. Global lockdowns trigger a 30% drop in equities in weeks. The news cycle warns of a depression.

The Critical Decision Dilemma

How do you manage your retirement account?

  • Choice: Maintain your long-term index allocation. Continue automated buying schedules. (Optimal Sovereign Action)

    Lesson: Panic selling during market drops locks in paper losses. Staying allocated allows you to capture recovery gains.

  • Choice: Cash out your entire portfolio to avoid further drops, planning to buy back at the bottom. (Behavioral Failure Trap)

    Lesson: You locked in a 30% loss. The market rebounded rapidly, and you missed the recovery rally.

  • Choice: Buy speculative travel options, expecting airlines to rebound within weeks. (Behavioral Failure Trap)

    Lesson: Speculative options decayed to zero as travel restrictions lasted far longer than anticipated.