The 2020 Pandemic Flash Crash
Historical Context
March 2020. Global lockdowns trigger a 30% drop in equities in weeks. The news cycle warns of a depression.
The Critical Decision Dilemma
How do you manage your retirement account?
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Choice: Maintain your long-term index allocation. Continue automated buying schedules. (Optimal Sovereign Action)
Lesson: Panic selling during market drops locks in paper losses. Staying allocated allows you to capture recovery gains.
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Choice: Cash out your entire portfolio to avoid further drops, planning to buy back at the bottom. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: You locked in a 30% loss. The market rebounded rapidly, and you missed the recovery rally.
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Choice: Buy speculative travel options, expecting airlines to rebound within weeks. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Speculative options decayed to zero as travel restrictions lasted far longer than anticipated.