The 1998 Russian Ruble Crisis
Historical Context
1998. You hold high-yield Russian government bonds yielding 150%. Signs of default are rising as commodity prices crash.
The Critical Decision Dilemma
What is your defensive play?
-
Choice: Liquidate Russian bonds immediately and exit to hard currencies (USD/CHF) outside local jurisdiction. (Optimal Sovereign Action)
Lesson: Sovereign yields of 150% indicate high default risk. Exiting early protects capital from defaults.
-
Choice: Hold the bonds, trusting that international bailouts (IMF) will prevent sovereign default. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: Russia defaulted anyway, freezing local markets and wiping out foreign bondholder claims.
-
Choice: Arbitrage by buying Russian equities, expecting stock values to hedge bond risks. (Behavioral Failure Trap)
Lesson: The default triggered a domestic banking freeze, wiping out both bonds and equity markets.